Gambling on the sun coming up

There’s an old joke on my dad’s side of the family that goes something like this…

FARMER: I just sold a hog for $200.

NEIGHBOR: That’s great!

FARMER: Yeah, I’m pretty happy. I’ve had it since last year, when I bought it for $200.

NEIGHBOR: That doesn’t sound very profitable at all! What’s the point of that?

FARMER: Well, you see, I had the use of the hog for the year.

* * * * * *

Last weekend our family joined a bunch of other local Unitarian Universalists at Seabeck, a seaside conference center.

Ben didn’t have enough money with him to buy anything from the vending machines there. Nevertheless he repeatedly put in the one quarter that he had. Each time his money returned to him, he was delighted.

To me this seemed awfully silly. Sure, putting in money and seeing it come back is a good experiment for a five-year-old to do two or three times. But is this still fun on the tenth or twentieth attempt?

I stooped so low as to make fun of Ben to a friend. “He’s not a very good gambler,” I said, “but so far today he’s breaking even…”

Here’s the thing, though: the quarter you get back is NOT the one you put in. You might wind up with a quarter that commemorates a national park or your state of birth or a U.S. territory that you’ve never been to. Maybe your new quarter will be wonderfully shiny. Maybe it will be remarkably old.

With each and every iteration, you’ll almost certainly land somewhere new.